Moving Averages
A moving average is simply a way to smooth out price action over time.
By “moving average”, we mean that you are taking the average closing
price of asecurity for the last ‘X’ number of periods.
On a chart, it would look like this:
Like every indicator, a moving average indicator is used to help us forecast future prices. By looking at the slope of the moving average, you can better determine the potential direction of market prices.
As we said, moving averages smooth out price action.
There are different types of moving averages and each of them has their own level of “smoothness”.
Generally, the smoother the moving average, the slower it is to react to the price movement.
The choppier the moving average, the quicker it is to react to the price movement.
To make a moving average smoother, you should get the average closing prices over a longer time period.
Now, you’re probably thinking, “C’mon, let’s get to the good stuff. How can I use this to trade?”
In this section, we first need to explain to you the two major types of moving averages:
- Simple
- Exponential
We’ll also teach you how to calculate them and give the pros and cons
of each. Just like in every other lesson in the BabyPips.com School of
Pipsology, you need to know the basics first!
After you’ve got that on lockdown like Argentinian soccer player Lionel Messi’s ball-handling
skills, we’ll teach you the different ways to use moving averages and
how to incorporate them into your trading strategy.
1. Simple Moving Average
The Simple Moving Average is arguably the most popular technical analysis
tool used by traders. The Simple Moving Average (SMA) is used mainly to identify
trend direction, but is commonly used to generate buy and sell signals. The SMA
is an average, or in statistical speak - the mean. An example of a Simple Moving
Average is presented below:
The prices for the last 5 days were 25, 28, 26, 24, 25. The average would be
(25+28+26+26+27)/5 = 26.4. Therefore, the SMA line below the last days price of
27 would be 26.4. In this case, since prices are generally moving higher, the
SMA line of 26.4 would be acting as support (see: Support & Resistance).
The chart below shows a 20-day Simple Moving Average acting as support for prices.
Moving Average Acting as Support - Buy Signal
When price is in an uptrend and subsequently, the moving average is in an
uptrend, and the moving average has been tested by price and price has bounced
off the moving average a few times (i.e. the moving average is serving as a
support line), then buy on the next pullbacks back to the Simple Moving
Average.
A Simple Moving Average can serve as a line of resistance as the chart shows:
Moving Average Acting as Resistance Sell Signal
At times when price is in a downtrend and the moving average is in a
downtrend as well, and price tests the SMA above and is rejected a few
consecutive times (i.e. the moving average is serving as a resistance line),
then buy on the next rally up to the Simple Moving Average.
The examples above have been only using one Simple Moving Average; however,
traders often use two or even three Simple Moving Averages. The advantages to
using more than one Simple Moving Average is discussed on the next page.
2. Moving Average Crossovers
Moving average crossovers are a common way traders use Moving Averages. A
crossover occurs when a faster Moving Average (i.e. a shorter period Moving
Average) crosses either above a slower Moving Average (i.e. a longer period
Moving Average) which is considered a bullish crossover or below which
is considered a bearish crossover.
The chart below
shows the 50-day Simple Moving Average and the 200-day Simple Moving Average;
this Moving Average pair is often looked at by big financial institutions as a
long range indicator of market direction:
Note how the long-term 200-day Simple Moving Average is in an uptrend; this is a
signal that the market is quite strong. Generally, a buy signal is established
when the shorter-term 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA and contrastly, a
sell signal is indicated when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA.
In the chart above of the S&P 500, both buy signals would have been
extremely profitable, but the one sell signal would have caused a small loss.
Keep in mind, that the 50-day, 200-day Simple Moving Average crossover is a very
long-term strategy.
For those traders that want more confirmation when they use Moving Average
crossovers, the 3 Simple Moving Average crossover technique could be used. An
example of this is shown in the chart below.
The 3 Simple Moving Average method is usually interpreted as follows:
- The first crossover of the quickest SMA (in the example above, the 10-day
SMA) across the next quickest SMA (20-day SMA) acts as a warning that prices are
reversing trend; however, usually a buy or sell order is not placed yet.
- The second crossover of the quickest SMA (10-day) and the slowest SMA
(50-day) finally triggers the buy or sell signal.
There are numerous variants and methodologies for using the 3 Simple Moving
Average crossover method, some are provided below:
- A more conservative approach is to wait until the middle SMA (20-day)
crosses over the slower SMA (50-day); but this is basically a two SMA crossover
technique, not a three SMA technique.
- A money management technique of buying a half size when the quick SMA
crosses over the next quickest SMA and then the other half when the quick SMA
crosses over the slower SMA.
- Instead of halves, buy or sell one-third of a position when the quick SMA
crosses over the next quickest SMA, another third when the quick SMA crosses
over the slow SMA, and the last third when the second quickest SMA crosses over
the slow SMA.
Moving Average crossovers are important tools in a traders toolbox. In fact
crossovers are included in the most popular technical indicators including the
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (see: MACD). Other moving averages deserve careful consideration
in a trading plan.
3. Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) weighs current prices more heavily than
past prices. This gives the Exponential Moving Average the advantage of being
quicker to respond to price fluctuations than a Simple
Moving Average; however, that can also be viewed as a disadvantage because
the EMA is more prone to whipsaws (i.e. false signals).
The chart below of eBay (EBAY) stock shows the difference between a 10-day
Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 10-day regular Simple Moving Average
(SMA):
The main thing to notice is how much quicker the EMA responds to price
reversals; whereas the SMA lags during periods of reversal.
The chart below shows the
difference between moving average crossovers (see: Moving Average Crossovers) buy and sell signals with a
EMA and a SMA.
As the chart above illustrates, even though EMA's are quicker to
respond to price movement, EMA's are not necessarily faster to give buy and sell
signals when using moving average crossovers.
Also note that the concept illustrated in the chart above with Exponential
Moving Average crossovers is the concept behind the wildly popular Moving
Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator; (see: MACD).
Since Exponential Moving Averages weigh current prices more heavily than past
prices, the EMA is viewed by many traders as quite superior to the Simple Moving
Average; however, every trader should weigh the pros and the cons of the EMA and
decide in which manner they will be using moving averages.
Nevertheless, Moving Averages remain the most popular and arguably the most
effective technical analysis indicator out on the market today.
4. Weighted Moving Average
The Weighted Moving Average places more importance on recent price moves;
therefore, the Weighted Moving Average reacts more quickly to price changes than
the regular Simple Moving Average (see: Simple Moving
Average). A basic example (3-period) of how the Weighted Moving Average is
calculated is presented below:
- Prices for the past 3 days have been $5, $4, and $8.
- Since there are 3 periods, the most recent day ($8) gets a weight of 3, the
second recent day ($4) receives a weight of 2, and the last day of the 3-periods
($5) receives a weight of just one.
- The calculation is as follows: [(3 x $8) + (2 x $4) + (1 x $5)] / 6 = $6.17
The Weighted Moving Average value of 6.17 compares to the Simple Moving
Average calculation of 5.67. Note how the large price increase of 8 that occured
on the most recent day was better reflected in the Weighted Moving Average
calculation.
The chart below of stock illustrates the visual difference between a
10-day Weighted Moving Average and a 10-day Simple Moving Average:
Buy and sell signals for the Weighted Moving Average indicator are discussed in
depth with the Simple Moving Average indicator (see: Simple Moving Average).
5. Adaptive Moving Average
Adaptive Moving Averages changes its sensitivity to price fluctuations. The
Adaptive Moving Average becomes more sensitive during periods when price is
moving in a certain direction and becomes less sensitive to price movement when
price is volatile.
The chart below contract shows the
difference between an Exponential Moving Average (see: Exponential Moving Average) which weights current
prices more heavily than past prices and the Adaptive Moving Average which
changes sensitivity based on price volatility:
The advantage of the Adaptive Moving Average is show above in the e-mini chart
in the center where price became directionless and choppy. During that period
the Adaptive Moving Average maintained a straight line appearance; whereas, the
Exponential Moving Average moved with the choppiness of prices. However, when
price trended, like on the far right of the e-mini chart above, the Adaptive
Moving Average kept up with the Exponential Moving Average.
The Adaptive Moving Average is definitely an unique technical indicator that
is worth further investigation.
6. Typical Price Moving Average
The Typical Price Moving Average combines the Pivot Point concept and the
Simple Moving Average. The Pivot Point (see: Pivot Points) calculation is shown
below:
- Pivot Point = (High + Low + Close) / 3
The calculated Pivot Point number is then inputted into the regular Simple
Moving Average (see: Simple Moving Average)
equation; rather than the input of the closing price, the Pivot Point
calculation is used.
The chart below shows the slight difference between a 10-day Simple Moving Average and a 10-day
Typical Price Moving Average:
The Typical Price attempts to give a more real representation of where price has
been by incorporating the high and low price into the most often used closing
price. The Typical Price is consequently seen as a more pure Simple Moving
Average; nevertheless, as can be referenced by the chart above, there is not much difference between either Moving Average. Buy and sell signals for the Typical Price Moving Average indicator are
discussed in depth on the Simple Moving Average indicator pages (see: Simple Moving Average).
7. Triangular Moving Average
The Triangular Moving Average is a Simple Moving Average that has been
averaged again (i.e. averaging the average); this creates an extra smooth Moving
Average line.
The chart below contract shows the relation
between a 10-day Simple Moving Average and a 10-day Triangular Moving
Average:
Generally, simple moving averages are smooth, but the re-averaging makes the
Triangular Moving Average even smoother and more wavelike.
Buy and sell signals for the Triangular Moving Average indicator are
discussed in depth on the Simple Moving Average indicator pages (see: Simple Moving Average).
Summary: Moving Averages

- There are many types of moving averages. The two most common
types are a simple moving average and an exponential moving average.
- Simple moving averages are the simplest form of moving averages, but they are susceptible to spikes.
- Exponential moving averages put more weight to recent price, which means they place more emphasis on what traders are doing now.
- It is much more important to know what traders are doing now than to see what they did last week or last month.
- Simple moving averages are smoother than exponential moving averages.
- Longer period moving averages are smoother than shorter period moving averages.
- Using the exponential moving average can help you spot a trend faster, but is prone to many fake outs.
- Smooth moving averages are slower to respond to price action
but will save you from spikes and fake outs. However, because of their
slow reaction, they can delay you from taking a trade and may cause you
to miss some good opportunities.
- You can use moving averages to help you define the trend, when to enter, and when the trend is coming to an end.
- Moving averages can be used as dynamic support and resistance levels.
- One of the best ways to use moving averages is to plot
different types so that you can see both long term movement and short
term movement.
You got all of that? Why don't you open up your charting software and try popping up some moving averages. Remember, using moving averages is easy. The hard part is determining which one to use! That's why you should try them out and figure out which best fits
your style of trading. Maybe you prefer a trend-following system. Or
maybe you want use them as dynamic support and resistance. Whatever you choose to do, make sure you read up and do some testing to see how it fits into your overall trading plan.