Common Reversal Chart Patterns
- Double Top Reversal (Bearish Reversal)
- Double Bottom Reversal (Bullish
Reversal)
- Head and Shoulders Top (Bearish
Reversal)
- Head and Shoulders Bottom (Bullish
Reversal)
- Falling Wedge (Bullish Reversal)
- Rising Wedge (Bearish Reversal)
- Rounding Bottom (Long Term Bullish
Reversal)
- Triple Top Reversal (Bearish Reversal)
- Triple Bottom Reversal (Bullish
Reversal)
- Bump and Run Reversal (Bearish
Reversal)
Double Top Reversal (Bearish Reversal)
What is Double
Top Pattern?
A double top is a trend reversal chart
pattern formed after good bullish price move (a continuous price move for a
good duration) where the upward price movement loses its steam (first top) and
it retraces a bit (to neckline or midpoint). Then again it moves in direction of
original trend and reaches the first top-level
thereby forming the second top. It again cannot move above the first top and start moving to the neckline. Once the neckline is broken its fall in price is steep.
Understanding Double top in details
A double top is formed when the stock
moves up for many days and the movement is steep towards the end. And then it
falls from there by about 10-15 %. After this,
it again tries to move up and reaches the level
of previous high but cannot cross its previous high. After this, it again starts falling to a level of the
neckline. Once it retraces below neckline
a downtrend starts.
Please note that in
actual practice, the two top may not be exactly at the same level. Generally, the second top is a slightly lower level but 1-2 %
higher then the first level is also
acceptable. A significant higher second top may be dealt with a lot of suspicions
as it may indicate a continuation of the uptrend
Volume in double Top has a lot of significance as it can help to
confirm the formation of the pattern.
Volume during first top should generally be much higher than volume during
second top formation and volume during midpoint formation should be much lower
than volume during neckline break out. Please avoid aggressive positioning when
the volume is not supporting the move.
For aggressive traders, a strict stop
loss is recommended.
It is very fairly common to see a pullback
near to neckline after formation of the
pattern. It should generally be seen as a healthy thing as it gives better
confirmation of neckline as resistance. In some case,
the pullback may happen few times. If
this happens too many times then it may not be a typical double top pattern. In case of pullback, it is recommended
to keep a stop loss of about 3% above neckline.
Volume in double Top has a lot of significance as it can help to
confirm the formation of the pattern.
Volume during first top should generally be much higher than volume during
second top formation and volume during midpoint formation should be much lower
than volume during neckline break out. Please avoid aggressive positioning when
the volume is not supporting the move.
For aggressive traders, a strict stop
loss is recommended.
It is very fairly common to see a pullback
near to neckline after formation of the
pattern. It should generally be seen as a healthy thing as it gives better
confirmation of neckline as resistance. In some case,
the pullback may happen few times. If
this happens too many times then it may not be a typical double top pattern. In case of pullback, it is recommended
to keep a stop loss of about 3% above neckline.
Double Bottom Reversal (Bullish Reversal)
What is Double Bottom Pattern?
Double
Bottom is a bullish trend reversal chart pattern formed after good
bearish price move (a continuous price down for a good duration) where
the downward price movement looses its steam (first bottom) and it
retraces a bit (to neck line or mid point).
Then again it moves
in direction of original trend and reaches the first bottom level there
by forming second bottom. It again cannot move down first bottom and
start moving to neckline. Once the neck line is broken uptrend is seen.
Understanding
Double Bottom in details Double bottom is formed when the stock moves
down for many days and the movement is steep towards the end. And then
it goes up from there by about 10-15% . After this it again tries to
move down and reaches level of previous low but cannot cross its
previous low. After this it again starts going up to a level of
neckline. Once it retraces above neckline a uptrend starts.

Please
note that in actual practice, the two bottom may not be exactly at same
level. Generally, second bottom is a slightly higher level but 1-2 %
lower then first level is also acceptable. A significant lower second
bottom may be dealt with lot of suspicion as it may indicate
continuation of downtrend. Shape of the bottoms can be from sharp and
pointed to rounds one.
Volume
in double bottom has a lot of significance as it can help to confirm
formation of the pattern. Volume during first bottom should generally be
much higher than volume during second bottom formation and volume
during midpoint formation should be much lower than volume during
neckline break out. Please avoid aggressive positioning when volume is
not supporting the move. For aggressive traders a strict stop loss is
recommended.
It is very fairly common to see a pull-up near to
neck line after formation of the pattern. It should generally be seen as
a healthy thing as it gives better confirmation of neckline as
resistance. In some case the pull up may happen few times. If this
happens too many times then it may not be typical double bottom pattern.
In case of pull-up, it is recommended to keep a stop loss of about 3%
below neck line.
Double bottom formation generally happens when
knowledgeable investor sense value in stock and start selling thus
resulting in slow and steady decrease in price with gradual down in
price. Seeing the trend many more people jump in to make quick bucks by
short selling. This leads to lower jump in price. Once this is known to
lot of uninformed people, they jump in and moves the price to a very low
level (bottom 1).
But this price is unsustainable and smart
investors starts booking profit resulting in increase in price to a
level of midpoint. To lot of uninformed people who missed the boat
during first rally, jump in considering it 'sell' opportunity and
results is decrease in the price to previous low but this time volume is
less. As the lower point is unsustainable, the price hike to neckline
where it may get some resistance. Once the neckline is broken with good
volume a typical trend reversal starts to reach a fair value but the
upward momentum can take it to upper fair price range and thereby making
a classic double bottom pattern.
Head and Shoulder Top ( Bearish Reversal)
Head and Shoulder pattern is a very reliable pattern and
that is reason of its popularity. It is a reversal pattern and is formed after
an uptrend.
Head and Shoulder pattern consist of the following:
1. Left Shoulder: In continuation of the uptrend the price
goes up to forms a new high or first peak known as left shoulder and then make
a low.
2. Head: Continuing the left shoulder low, again the price
goes up to a new high, higher than the left shoulder forming a middle peak
called as head of the pattern and come down.
3. Right Shoulder: It is formed when the price goes up again
from the low of the head but not as high as the Head and comes down forming
third peak or right shoulder.
4. Neckline: It is the line drawn through the bottom of the
the Left Shoulder, Head and the Right Shoulder and serves as an important
support for this pattern.
Breakout: The pattern is only considered reliable and
complete when the price goes down and closes below the neckline and there is
often increase in Volume.
Shape: Theoretically Head and Shoulder pattern should be
symmetrical. It means that the left and right shoulders should form peak about
the same price level and are equally distanced from the Head. But practically
you rarely seen such symmetrical Head and Shoulder patterns in real time.
However sometimes the left shoulder is higher then the right shoulder or vice
verse. But the head always have the highest peak. It is not necessary also that
the peaks formed in this pattern to be sharp, it may be pointed to round shape.
And therefore it is not necessary that neckline should be horizontal, it can be
sloping upwards or downwards.
Volume: With the formation of Head and Shoulder there is
continuous decrease in the volume. That means volume will be higher in the left
shoulder and eventually it decreases with the formation of head and right
shoulder.
Breakout Range: This is the vertical distance from the tip of
the head till the neckline. It is usually used to set the rough
potential price target however other technical indicators
must also be considered here as well.

Head & Shoulder Bottom (Bullish Reversal)
Reverse Head And Shoulder Pattern is just opposite of Head and Shoulder
Pattern. It is also a very reliable pattern and that is reason of its
popularity. It is a reversal pattern and is formed after a downtrend. Reverse
Head and Shoulder pattern consist of the following:
1.Left Shoulder: In continuation of the downtrend the price goes
down further to forms a new low or first peak known as left shoulder and then
make a high.
2.Head: Continuing the left shoulder high, again the price goes
down to a new low, lower than the left shoulder forming a middle peak called as
head of the pattern and goes up to the previous high.
3.Right Shoulder: It is formed when the price goes down again
from the high of the head but not as low as the Head and comes up again forming
third peak or right shoulder.
4.Neckline: It is the line drawn through the top of the the Left
Shoulder, Head and the Right Shoulder and serves as an important support for
this pattern.
Breakout: The pattern is only considered reliable and complete when
the price goes up and closes above the neckline and there is often increase in
Volume.
Shape: Theoretically Head and Shoulder pattern should be symmetrical. It
means that the left and right shoulders should form peak about the same price
level and are equally distanced from the Head. But practically you rarely saw
such symmetrical Head and Shoulder patterns in real time. However sometimes the
left shoulder is higher than the right shoulder or vice verse. But the head
always have the highest peak. It is not necessary also that the peaks formed in
this pattern to be sharp, it may be pointed to round shape. And therefore it is
not necessary that neckline should be horizontal, it can be sloping upwards or
downwards.
Volume: With the formation of Reverse Head and Shoulder there is
continuous decrease in the Volume.That means volume will be higher in the left shoulder and eventually it
decreases with the formation of head and right shoulder.
Breakout Range: This is the vertical distance from the tip of the head
till the neckline. It is usually used to set the rough potential price target
however other technical indicators must also be considered here as well.

Falling Wedge (Bullish Reversal)
The
Falling Wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and
contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that
slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. In
contrast to symmetrical triangles,
which have no definitive slope and no bias, falling wedges definitely
slope down and have a bullish bias. However, this bullish bias cannot be
realized until a resistance breakout.
The falling wedge can also fit into the continuation category. As a
continuation pattern, the falling wedge will still slope down, but the
slope will be against the prevailing uptrend. As a reversal pattern, the
falling wedge slopes down and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), falling wedges are regarded as bullish patterns.
Prior Trend: To
qualify as a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse.
Ideally, the falling wedge will form after an extended downtrend and
mark the final low. The pattern usually forms over a 3-6 month period
and the preceding downtrend should be at least 3 months old.
Upper Resistance Line:
It takes at least two reaction highs to form the upper resistance line,
ideally three. Each reaction high should be lower than the previous
highs.
Lower Support Line:
At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower support line.
Each reaction low should be lower than the previous lows.
Contraction: The
upper resistance line and lower support line converge to form a cone as
the pattern matures. The reaction lows still penetrate the previous
lows, but this penetration becomes shallower. Shallower lows indicate a
decrease in selling pressure and create a lower support line with less
negative slope than the upper resistance line.
Resistance Break:
Bullish confirmation of the pattern does not come until the resistance
line is broken in convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait
for a break above the previous reaction high for further confirmation.
Once resistance is broken, there can sometimes be a correction to test
the newfound support level.
Volume: While volume is not particularly important on rising wedges,
it is an essential ingredient to confirm a falling wedge breakout.
Without an expansion of volume, the breakout will lack conviction and be
vulnerable to failure.
As with rising wedges, the falling wedge can be one of the most
difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. When lower
highs and lower lows form, as in a falling wedge, a security remains in a
downtrend. The falling wedge is designed to spot a decrease in downside momentum and alert technicians to a potential trend reversal.
Even though selling pressure may be diminishing, demand does not win
out until resistance is broken. As with most patterns, it is important
to wait for a breakout and combine other aspects of technical analysis
to confirm signals.
FCX provides a textbook example of a falling wedge at the end of a long downtrend.
Prior Trend: The
downtrend for FCX began in the third quarter of 1997. There was a brief
advance in Mar-98, but the downtrend resumed and the stock was trading
at new lows by Feb-99.
Upper Resistance Line: The upper resistance line formed with four successively lower peaks.
Lower Support Line: The lower support line formed with four successive lower lows.
Contraction: The
upper resistance line and lower support line converged as the pattern
matured. Even though each low is lower than the previous low, these lows
are only slightly lower. The shallowness of the new lows indicates that
demand is stepping almost immediately after a new low is recorded. The
supply overhang remains, but slope of the upper resistance line is more
negative than the lower support line.
Resistance Break:
In contrast to the three previous lows, the late February low was flat
and consolidated just above 9 for a few weeks. The subsequent breakout
in March occurred with a series of strong advances. In addition, there
was a positive divergence in the PPO.
Volume: After the
large volume decline on 24-Feb (red arrow), upside volume began to
increase. Above-average volume continued on advancing days and when the
stock broke trend line resistance. Money flows confirmed the strength by
surpassing their Nov-98 high and moving to their highest level since
Apr-98.
After the trend line breakout, there
was a brief pullback to support from the trend line extension. The
stock consolidated for a few weeks and then advanced further on
increased volume again.
Rising Wedge (Bearish Reversal)
The
Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and
contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows. In
contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no
bullish or bearish bias, rising wedges definitely slope up and have a
bearish bias.
Even
though this article will focus on the rising wedge as a reversal
pattern, the pattern can also fit into the continuation category. As a
continuation pattern, the rising wedge will still slope up, but the
slope will be against the prevailing downtrend. As a reversal pattern,
the rising wedge will slope up and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), rising wedges are bearish.
Upper Resistance Line:
It takes at least two reaction highs to form the upper resistance line,
ideally three. Each reaction high should be higher than the previous
high.
Lower Support Line: At least two reaction
lows are required to form the lower support line. Each reaction low
should be higher than the previous low.
Contraction:
The upper resistance line and lower support line converge as the
pattern matures. The advances from the reaction lows (lower support
line) become shorter and shorter, which makes the rallies unconvincing.
This creates an upper resistance line that fails to keep pace with the
slope of the lower support line and indicates a supply overhang as
prices increase.
Support Break: Bearish
confirmation of the pattern does not come until the support line is
broken in a convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait for a
break of the previous reaction low. Once support is broken, there can
sometimes be a reaction rally to test the newfound resistance level.
Volume:
Ideally, volume will decline as prices rise and the wedge evolves. An
expansion of volume on the support line break can be taken as bearish
confirmation.
The rising wedge can be one of the most difficult
chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. While it is a
consolidation formation, the loss of upside momentum on each successive
high gives the pattern its bearish bias. However, the series of higher
highs and higher lows keeps the trend inherently bullish. The final
break of support indicates that the forces of supply have finally won
out and lower prices are likely. There are no measuring techniques to
estimate the decline – other aspects of technical analysis should be
employed to forecast price targets.

ANN provides a good example of the rising wedge as a reversal
pattern that forms in the face of weakening momentum and money flow.
Prior Trend:
From a low around 10 in Oct-98, ANN surpassed 23 in less than 7 months.
The final leg up was a sharp advance from below 15 in Feb. to 23.5 in
mid-April.
Upper Resistance Line: The upper resistance line formed with three successively higher peaks.
Lower Support Line: The lower support line formed with three successive higher lows.
Contraction:
The upper resistance line and lower support line converged as the
pattern matured. A visual assessment confirms that the slope of the
lower support line is steeper than that of the upper resistance line.
Less slope in the upper resistance line indicates that momentum is
waning as the stock makes new highs.
Support Break:
The stock hugged the support line for over a week before finally
breaking with a sharp decline. The previous reaction low was broken a
few days later with long black candlestick (red arrow).
Volume:
Chaikin Money Flow turned negative in late April and was well below
-10% when the support line was broken. There was an expansion of volume
when the previous reaction low was broken.
Support from the April
reaction low around 20 turned into resistance and the stock tested this
level in early July before declining further.
Rounding Bottom (Long Term Bullish Reversal)
The Rounding Bottom is rarely seen intraday and
occurs most often on weekly charts. It is a great reversal pattern that
you should keep an eye on after a stock has sold off for 1-2 years
The Rounding Bottom chart pattern analysis is usually conducted on a
weekly chart. This is because this pattern is associated with a longer
period of consolidation. Rounding bottoms start out with the bias to the
down side but then as the trend is established and the pattern develops
it turns its bias to the long side.
You can identify the Rounding Bottom pattern when doing your chart
analysis with its saucer shaped bottom which is formed slightly less
aggressive than other bottoming reversal patterns.
Powerful Reversal Pattern
The pattern does not vary too much in its development but can
sometimes be mistaken at first as having similar characteristics as the Inverted Head and Shoulders.
The difference arises with its saucer shaped bottom which develops over
a longer term stopping it from becoming a V pivot (Bottom).
Support areas of the Rounding Bottoms are often harder to pin point
from a chart analysis's point of view as like a V pivot you only get one
reference point to mark as support.
Key Points in Formation:
- Establish Trend - like any other reversal
pattern there must be a long term established trend to reverse. Rounding
Bottoms have to be formed after a significant long term down trend.
- Left Side Decline - This decline is the first part
of the price move and it has a tendency to be slightly volatile with
multiple lower highs and lower lows. This is where the confusion can
firstly begin of whether it is an Inverted Head and shoulder.
- Low - After you have seen the progressive left
decline, the low of the Rounding Bottom will start to be formed. This
will be over a number of weeks so it does not appear to be a V pivot
(bottom). This is what I deem to be the first confirmation of the
Rounding Bottom Pattern.
- Right Side Incline - For the incline to be
confirmed it has to follow about the same time frame as what the left
side decline took to fall to the low. As mentioned above if the incline
is too steep the pattern may be in question.
- Resistance - Analysing chart pattern resistance is
all about looking to the left. The Rounding Bottom is no different and
you can get your first major area of resistance plotted where left side
decline starts which will be last major lower pivot high. On fig.1 we
draw our resistance trend line horizontal from that point to where price
action will meet from the right side incline.
- Breakout - This is the confirmation that price
action will continue to the upside breaking the last major lower high
pivot which is our resistance trendline. Confirmation still needs to be
that the price closes outside the resistance area. You can often see
price returning to test the resistance trendline but it does not
necessarily have to.
 |
Powerful reveral pattern |
Styles Traded - How can it be Traded:
- Entry - Price breaks resistance area and closes
above. This has a bigger stop loss but is more confirmation that it's
on its way down.
- Might Miss - Price retests the resistance trendline which now becomes support area.
 |
How to trade the Rounding Bottom |
Both trading style entries have their strength
and weaknesses and will come down to the trading style of the
individual trader and their tolerance to money management (R&R).
Triple Top Reversal (Bearish Reversal)
What is Triple Top Chart Pattern?
Triple
Top Pattern is very reliable, bearish reversal pattern. It is formed
after an uptrend. It consists of three consecutive peaks or tops formed
at a regular interval and of almost the same heights.
1.Top One:
Top one or peak one is formed in continuation of the uptrend. There is a
formation of new high followed by a pull back(10-20%) till the
neckline(Support).
2.Top Two: Price again moves from neckline
to make another high called the second top or peak 2 or resistance 2
followed by a pull back(10-20%) again till the neckline.
3.Top Three: Third top or third peak is formed when the price movers towards the resistance for the third time before giving a breakout.
4.Neckline Support:
It is the line drawn through the bottom of the top one, top two till
the top three. It serves as a important support to the pattern

Understanding Triple Top Chart Pattern:
Triple
top chart pattern is formed when the buyers have faith in the stock and
take the price to a new high (Top1) but fails to continue so due to the
resistance, results in a pull back. Again the buyers tries to rise the
price but fails to get enough momentum to further increase the price
result in a second pull back. Same sentiments of buyers are involved in
the formation of third top. After all this attempts buyers looses their
faith and sellers took over buyers resulting in the fall in price and
reverse in the trend.
Duration: It takes several minutes to several
months for this pattern to be formed. The longer the duration the more
reliable the pattern is, after the breakout occurs.
Shape:
Theoretically the triple top should be symmetrical that means all the
three tops should be of nearly equal heights and spaced almost equally
from each other. However practically the three highs are not necessarily
of equal heights and spaced equally from each other. The tip of the top
may be from pointed to round shape and hence for the neckline also its
not necessary to be horizontal, it can be sloping upwards or downwards.
Breakout:It
is very important for this pattern confirmation. Triple top is
considered reliable only when the price closes below the neckline
support or the confirmation point(lowest low of the pattern) and there
is often high jump in volume. If the price don't close below the
confirmation point then it may not be a triple top pattern.
One can
often seen a pull back after a breakout which is in support of this
pattern formation. However the important thing to note is the pull back
is to test the neckline support which later becomes the resistance. It
is always advisable to keep a stop loss in a pull back.
Volume:
It plays a crucial role in confirming the pattern. With the formation
of triple top chart pattern there is a decrease in volume. Therefore
generally the volume is higher in the first peak, followed by second
peak and third peak. A decrease in volume indicates that the buyers are
loosing interest which is favorable to the formation of the pattern.
Near breakout there in an increase in volume which further confirms the
reliability of the pattern.
Price Target:A rough price target can
be calculated by measuring the vertical distance between the highest
peak (resistance) and the neckline support. However other technical
indicators have to keep in mind here as well.
Triple Bottom Reversal (Bullish Reversal)
What is Triple Bottom Chart Pattern?
Triple Bottom Pattern is very reliable, bullish reversal pattern. It is formed after an downtrend. It consists of three consecutive bottoms formed at a regular interval and of almost the same heights.
1.Bottom One: Bottom one is formed in continuation of the
downtrend. There is a formation of new low followed by a pull
back(10-20%) till the neckline(Resistance).
2.Bottom Two: Price again moves from neckline to make another low
called the second bottom or followed by a pull back(10-20%) again
till the neckline.
3.Bottom Three: Third bottom is formed when the price movers towards the resistance for the third time before giving a breakout.
4.Neckline Resistance: It is the line drawn through the first bottom till the third bottom. It serves as a important resistance to the pattern.

Understanding Triple Bottom Chart Pattern:
Triple bottom chart pattern is formed when the sellers have faith that
the stock price will go down further which leads to a new low (bottom1)
but fails to continue so, due to the Support Basics,
results in a pull back. Again the sellers tries to reduce the price
but fails to get enough momentum to further decrease the price which
results in a second pull back. Same sentiments of sellers are involved
in the formation of third bottom. After all this attempts sellers looses
their faith and buyers took over sellers resulting in the rise in price
and reverse in the trend.
Duration: It takes several minutes to several months for this
pattern to be formed. The longer the duration the more reliable the
pattern is, after the breakout occurs.
Shape: Theoretically the triple bottom should be symmetrical that
means all the three bottoms should be of nearly equal heights and
spaced almost equally from each other. However practically the three
lows are not necessarily of equal heights and spaced equally from each
other. The tip of the bottom may be from pointed to round shape and
hence for the neckline also its not necessary to be horizontal, it can
be sloping upwards or downwards.
Breakout:It is very important for this pattern confirmation.
Triple bottom is considered reliable only when the price closes below
the neckline support or the confirmation point(lowest low of the
pattern) and there is often high jump in volume. If the price don't
close below the confirmation point then it may not be a triple bottom
pattern.
One can often seen a pull back after a breakout which is in support of
this pattern formation. However the important thing to note is the pull
back is to test the neckline which later becomes the support.It is
always advisable to keep a stop loss in a pull back.
Volume:Volume
plays a crucial role in confirming the pattern. With the formation of
triple bottom chart pattern there is a decrease in volume. Therefore
generally the volume is higher in the first bottom, followed by second
bottom and third bottom. A decrease in volume indicates that the
sellers are loosing interest which is favorable to the formation of the
pattern. Near breakout there in an increase in volume which further
confirms the reliability of the pattern showing that the buyers are
taking over the sellers.
Price Target.A rough price target can be calculated by measuring
the vertical distance between the highest bottom (support) and the
neckline resistance. However other technical indicators have to keep in
mind here as well.
Triple Bottom Chart Pattern Formed By Sun Pharmaceutical Ltd-Example1
Bump and Run Reversal (Reversal)
As the name implies, the Bump and Run Reversal (BARR) is a reversal
pattern that forms after excessive speculation drives prices up too far,
too fast. Developed by Thomas Bulkowski, the pattern was introduced in
the June-97 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities and also included in his book, the Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
The pattern was originally named the Bump and Run Formation, or BARF.
Bulkowski decided that Wall Street was not ready for such an acronym and
changed the name to Bump and Run Reversal. Bulkowski identified three
main phases to the pattern: lead-in, bump, and run. We will examine these phases and also look at volume and pattern validation.

Lead-in Phase: The
first part of the pattern is a lead-in phase that can last 1 month or
longer and forms the basis from which to draw the trend line. During
this phase, prices advance in an orderly manner and there is no excess
speculation. The trend line should be moderately steep. If it is too
steep, then the ensuing bump is unlikely to be significant enough. If
the trend line is not steep enough, then the subsequent trend line break
will occur too late. Bulkowski advises that an angle of 30 to 45
degrees is preferable. The size of the angle will depend on the scaling (semi-log
or arithmetic) and the size of the chart. It is probably easier to
judge the soundness of the trend line with a visual assessment.
Bump Phase: The
bump forms with a sharp advance, and prices move further away from the
lead-in trend line. Ideally, the angle of the trend line from the bump's
advance should be about 50% greater than the angle of the trend line
extending up from the lead-in phase. Roughly speaking, this would call
for an angle between 45 and 60 degrees. If it is not possible to measure
the angles, then a visual assessment will suffice.
Bump Validity: It
is important that the bump represent a speculative advance that cannot
be sustained for a long time. Bulkowski developed what he calls an
“arbitrary” measuring technique to validate the level of speculation in
the bump. The distance from the highest high of the bump to the lead-in
trend line should be at least twice the distance from the highest high
in the lead-in phase to the lead-in trend line. These distances can be
measured by drawing a vertical line from the highest highs to the
lead-in trend line. An example is provided below.
Bump Rollover: After speculation dies down, prices begin to peak and a top forms. Sometimes, a small double top
or a series of descending peaks forms. Prices begin to decline towards
the lead-in trend line, and the right side of the bump forms.
Volume: As the
stock advances during the lead-in phase, volume is usually average and
sometimes low. When the speculative advance begins to form the left side
of the bump, volume expands as the advance accelerates.
Run Phase: The run phase begins when the pattern breaks support
from the lead-in trend line. Prices will sometimes hesitate or bounce
off the trend line before breaking through. Once the break occurs, the
run phase takes over, and the decline continues.
Support Turns Resistance:
After the trend line is broken, there is sometimes a retracement that
tests the newfound resistance level. Potential support-turned-resistance levels can also be identified from the reaction lows within the bump.
The Bump and Run Reversal pattern can be applied to daily, weekly or
monthly charts. As stated above, the pattern is designed to identify
speculative advances that are unsustainable for a long period. Because
prices rise very fast to form the left side of the bump, the subsequent
decline can be just as ferocious.
Level Three Communications (LVLT) formed a Bump and Run Reversal pattern
after prices advanced in a speculative frenzy at the beginning of 2000.
Prices advanced from 72 to 132 in 2 months and this advance ultimately
proved unsustainable.
The lead-in phase formed over a 3
month period from early Oct-99 to early Jan-00. Volume during this phase
was relatively subdued, and actually declined during the November and
December advance.
The trend line extending up from the
lead-in phase lows formed a 34-degree angle. A visual assessment also
reveals that this trend line is neither too steep nor too flat.
The bump phase began in early
January when the advance accelerated with a large increase in volume. A
conservatively drawn trend line formed a 51-degree angle that was
exactly 50% larger than the angle from the lead-in trend line.
The distance from the lead-in
phase's highest high to the trend line was 13. The distance from the
bump phase's highest high to the trend line was 38. This is almost three
times larger, and validates the speculative excesses in the bump.
After reaching a high around 132,
prices declined sharply, and bounced off the lead-in trend line. A lower
high formed around 115 (red arrow), and the trend line was soon broken.
The decline continued after the
trend line break, and reached 67 before a reaction rally began. The
reaction rally advanced to around 95, but fell just short of the
horizontal support line before falling back to new lows.
Note: Classified these chart patterns as to whether they are typically reversal or continuation patterns, but many can indicate either a reversal or a continuation, depending on the circumstances.